Inflation soared in 2022 as demand for oil and gas increased following the Covid pandemic and energy prices rose again when Russia invaded Ukraine.
According to official forecasts published in March 2026, before the war in the Middle East broke out, UK inflation was expected to be at or near its target of 2% over the next five years.
But in April the Bank of England warned that disruptions in global energy markets could mean UK inflation could rise to 6% in a worst-case scenario.
When the latest ceasefire took effect, analysts said it could limit further increases in inflation. Oil prices initially fell sharply after the deal was announced but rose again after the US and Iran renewed attacks in the Strait of Hormuz in July.
As a result, UK petrol prices are likely to rise again. This, coupled with increases in household energy bills from 1 July when Ofgem’s new price cap came into force, is expected to push up inflation in the UK.
New Prime Minister Andy Burnham has announced that VAT on energy bills will be scrapped, but this won’t come into force until October. This is projected to have a slight downward impact on inflation.
It is because food and energy prices can be so volatile that the Bank of England is also considering other economic measures such as “core inflation” that exclude these costs.
Core consumer price index was 2.6% in the 12 months to August 2026, unchanged from the 12 months to July.