Exit poll suggests comfortable win for opposition parties and worse-than-expected result for far-right Sweden Democrats – quick analysis
Jakub Krupa
According to the SVT/Valu exit poll, opposition parties lead by more than five percentage points – this is close to the best results of pre-election polls in the final hours of the campaign – and should win the election comfortably.
Of course, there can be no poll. What wrong?
Another topic for immediate conversation: result of the Swedish Democrats: in the SVT/Valu poll (but not in the TV4 poll, mind you) they are only third, lagging behind moderate Prime Minister Kristersson.
This completely contradicts the narrative that the far right is marching across Europe.
Key events
Despite the pre-election panic, the Liberals are likely to enter the new parliament – quick analysis
Jakub Krupa
While the Liberals had reason to worry about whether they would get into the new Parliament, both exit polls show them firmly above the 4% threshold.
It is not entirely clear how much this has to do with the tactical voting of other “blue” parties, but in any case they will be happy with the result.
Exit poll suggests comfortable win for opposition parties and worse-than-expected result for far-right Sweden Democrats – quick analysis
Jakub Krupa
According to the SVT/Valu exit poll, opposition parties lead by more than five percentage points – this is close to the best results of pre-election polls in the final hours of the campaign – and should win the election comfortably.
Of course, there can be no poll. What wrong?
Another topic for immediate conversation: result of the Swedish Democrats: in the SVT/Valu poll (but not in the TV4 poll, mind you) they are only third, lagging behind moderate Prime Minister Kristersson.
This completely contradicts the narrative that the far right is marching across Europe.
SVT/Valu poll: Opposition parties have won a majority in the new parliament
SVT/Valu exit poll gives opposition 183 seats in the new parliament up to 166 from the current government and the Sweden Democrats.
TV4 poll: Social Democrats will win, the opposition will come to power in Sweden
TV4 poll:
Social Democratic Party (C) 28.4%
Sweden Democrats (SD) 18.5%
Moderate (M) 17.5%
Center Party (C) 9.0%
Green Party (MP) 7.0%
Left Party (V) 6.9%
Christian Democrats (CD) 6.0%
Liberals (L) 5.0%
If you add it up quickly, he estimates the left opposition bloc at 51.3%, far ahead of the right-wing government bloc with 47.0%.
SVT/Valu poll: center-left opposition bloc may win elections
SVT/Valu survey:
Social Democratic Party (C) 28.4% (-1.9%)
Moderate (M) 18.1% (-1%)
Sweden Democrats (SD) 17.2% (-3.3%)
Left Party (V) 8.0% (-1.3%)
Center Party (C) 7.5% (+0.8%)
Green Party (MP) 7.4% (+2.3%)
Christian Democrats (CD) 6.1% (+0.8%)
Liberals (L) 5.4% (+0.8)
This puts left opposition bloc – 51.3% while 46.8% belong to right-wing government parties.
A change of government is planned.
Exit poll: Social Democrats will win in Sweden
An STV/Valu poll shows the opposition Social Democratic Party is forecast to win with 28.4% of the vote.
But we kind of knew it.
Let’s wait for the full numbers for all parties.
Exit polls are inevitable
Jakub Krupa
Two exit polls – for Swedish public broadcaster SVT and private broadcaster TV4 – are expected soon.
The SVT survey in particular is something of an institution in Sweden. You can see the form voters are asked to fill out here.
But, as usual, quick health alert this usually happens in any exit poll: given how narrow the expected margin is, we should take these numbers with a grain of salt.
After all, in 2022, exit polls showed the left bloc leading by a small margin, but the actual results ultimately showed the opposite result.
“These election organizations constantly adjusting your sampling to try to get it right. Everything is constantly changing. The way we consume news, the way we communicate with each other about politics. So these social scientists are always trying to hit a moving target.” Nicholas Aylott I was told by Södertörn University in Stockholm.
So, taking all this into account, let’s see what they show.
Ready?
15 minutes left
Arriving on election night, Social Democratic leader Magdalena Andersson says it has been a “tense” campaign and adds that there are “still a few minutes left to choose a new direction.”
“Change is within reach,” she says.
Arriving on election night for his Moderate Party, Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said it had been a “fantastically enjoyable campaign” requiring “hard work… and a lot of enthusiasm.”
He would say that, right?
But he also says he’s “confident” because the party has had “the wind in its sails for weeks now.”
“Now the decision is up to the Swedish people,” he says.
How the far right changed the Swedish conversation on migration
Ashifa Kassam
European Community Affairs Correspondent
Polls in Sweden have narrowed in recent weeks, leaving many nervous, especially after the right-wing ruling coalition said for the first time it would offer ministerial posts to the far right if it won.
Those who bore the brunt of the far right’s time by supporting the government concerns that Sweden, long considered a leader in issues of equality and freedom, could be irrevocably changed, no matter what happens on Sunday.
“His kind of an open Pandora’s box,– said Munir Niyazi.
During the reign of a center-right prime minister Ulf Kristersson, The far-right Sweden Democrats have used their leverage to steer policy on migration and crime, using the spotlight to spread rhetoric linking the two and scapegoating migrants, Muslims and other minorities for everything that ails the country.
As a result, Sweden’s national dialogue has shifted to the right. – said Niyazi.
“Over the past four years, the largest opposition party, the Social Democrats, has been slow to accept and even vote with the right wing on issues of migration and crime. At least in the near future, we do not see the country returning to the politics of the 80s and 90s.”
Changes in immigration policy, including newly introduced rules barring most asylum seekers from accessing permanent residence, were an example of how the political dialogue in Sweden has changed over time as the far right has become a power broker, said journalist Bilan Osman.
Among those targeted in the crackdown on asylum seekers was an undocumented 14-year-old who, despite being born in Sweden, faced deportation to Armenia along with his single mother and younger brother. “It’s like hell. I’ve been here all my life.” he told the Guardian. “I feel like a Swede.”
30 minutes before polling stations close
Sweden needs a ‘new direction’, says opposition leader Andersson
Opposition leader Magdalena Andersson voted on Sunday morning in the Stockholm suburb of Naka and said the election campaign was a “tale of two sides.”
“There were a lot of lies and bickering, but at the same time there are so many sensible people all over the country,“The focus is on winning and setting a new direction for Sweden,” she told SVT.
“We have become a tougher society, a quieter society, but also a poorer society. because our growth is far below our potential and households are seeing their wages buy less and less,” she told Reuters.
Separately Abba Benny Andersson showed his support for the Social Democratic leader by performing a reworked version of Mamma Mia to supporters at party headquarters, replacing the words “Mamma Mia” with “Magdalena”.