“This is national and international infrastructure,” he said, warning that the underlying ecological system is “approaching a tipping point.”
Not all forces causing glacier loss are beyond the region’s control.
A Systemiq study estimates that about a third of the melting of Himalayan glaciers is caused by black carbon, much of which is produced in brick kilns on the plains. Soot that settles on snow and ice absorbs more sunlight and speeds up melting.
Unlike global greenhouse gas emissions, black carbon pollution is a lever that India and its neighbors can influence directly, the report argues.
“The Himalayas are approaching a tipping point with millions of lives and livelihoods hanging in the balance,” said Arushi Chopra, senior director at Systemiq and lead author. “Glaciers are melting faster than ten years ago.”
The report proposes 10 priority transitions, from reducing black carbon emissions and expanding glacier monitoring to improving early warning systems for natural disasters and changing the way mountain tourism is developed.
One priority is strengthening disaster preparedness, with governments agreeing in advance what actions to take if a disaster occurs, from evacuating to protecting vulnerable infrastructure.
Another option is to rethink tourism. According to the report, the Indian Himalayan region receives about 400 million tourists a year, and the researchers argue that the goal must shift from maximizing visitor numbers to creating value that is retained and reinvested locally.
Pema Gyamtso, CEO of ICIMOD, said the risks are becoming increasingly complex.
“Glaciers are retreating, permafrost and high mountain slopes are becoming increasingly unstable, and downstream communities and infrastructure face increasing risks from complex and cascading hazards,” he said.
And these risks are not limited to borders passing through the Himalayas. Such dangers, Gyamtso said, “do not respect national boundaries, and no one country can cope with them alone.”
This makes cross-border monitoring, shared risk information and early warning systems, and joint investments in resilience increasingly relevant – not only to save lives, but also to protect the livelihoods and economies of the hundreds of millions of people who depend on mountains.