India’s nuclear arsenal is estimated at 190 warheads, including 30 additional warheads for new missiles under production, according to a US-based non-profit policy think tank.
The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) obtained the estimates based on an analysis of a combination of open sources, government data and commercial satellite imagery.
“Based on publicly available information on the structure and strategy of its nuclear delivery force, we estimate that India may have produced about 190 nuclear warheads,” says the article, titled “India’s Nuclear Weapons 2026,” written by FAS Nuclear Information Project Director Hans Christensen.
India’s nuclear arsenal includes more than 160 warheads for existing launchers, as well as additional warheads for new missiles in production, it said.
The article, published Wednesday, noted that India continues to modernize its nuclear arsenal, with several new weapons systems deployed in recent years and several more under development to complement or replace existing nuclear-capable aircraft, land-based and sea-based delivery systems.
“We estimate that India may have produced enough military-grade plutonium to produce between 140 and 225 nuclear warheads and may have assembled as many as 190. With more weapons systems in development, the country’s warhead stockpile is likely to increase further,” it said.
India adopted the no-first-use doctrine after the Pokhran-II nuclear test in 1998 and continues to adhere to this policy.
“India is committed to maintaining a credible minimum deterrence and ‘no first use’ posture of nuclear weapons,” the government recently said in Parliament.
The FAS article states that as of early 2026, the International Panel on Fissile Materials estimates that India has produced approximately 730 kg (plus or minus about 170 kg) of weapons-grade plutonium.
“Assuming approximately four kilograms of plutonium per warhead, this would theoretically be enough to produce 140 to 225 nuclear warheads,” the report said.
However, it said there were some caveats in the calculations due to a number of uncertainties such as warhead designs made by India.
India’s nuclear tests in 1998 firmly validated the nuclear fission project, but the country’s progress in developing fast fission nuclear weapons and thermonuclear weapons remains highly uncertain, the article said.
“Regardless of the warhead design, it is unlikely that India used all of its plutonium to produce warheads and may have kept some in reserve,” the author noted.
The size of India’s nuclear arsenal also depends on the number and types of launchers capable of delivering them, as it is unlikely that it will be able to produce significantly more warheads than those systems can launch, the article said.
Published September 10, 2026