Oil prices jumped to $100 as Houthi attacks, US strikes on Iranian tankers and renewed tensions in the Middle East rocked markets.
Gas prices rise in Europe as concerns over storage return
– European natural gas prices jumped to 75 euros per MWh ($25.5 per mmBtu), their highest level since 2022 and more than double their levels a year ago, as low inventories on the continent raise fears of a winter supply shock.
– Since LNG carrier Al Nuaman delivered its cargo to Rovigo, Italy in early April, the EU has not imported Qatari LNG, equivalent to 8% of its imports in 2025.
– European gas reserves are currently 66% full, with market watchers believing Germany and the Netherlands are particularly vulnerable heading into the winter season, with reserves at 54% and 48% respectively.
– Compounding Europe’s gas import costs, prices for LNG supplied to the NWT continue to rise in line with the JKM price in Asia, reaching $24.5 per mmBtu this week, with virtually no lag between October and December.
– Six months of high prices are reducing LNG purchases on the Old Continent, with September LNG imports expected to remain at August levels (7.5 million tonnes), down 13% year-on-year.
Market driving forces
– French oil giant TotalEnergy (NYSE:TTE) announced that its planned 6 million tonne per annum LNG project in Papua is taking “decisive steps” toward FID while handing over operatorship to US major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM).
– London energy giant Shell (LON:SHEL) is reportedly considering selling all or part of its 72% stake in the Bintulu liquid gas plant, in a move that could potentially raise up to $1 billion.
– Canadian oil producer Tamarack Valley Energy (TSO:TVE) has agreed to merge with Headwater Exploration (TSO:HWX) in an all-stock deal valued at $7.2 billion, creating the world’s first net production Clearwater with net production of 80,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.
– UK oil company BP (NYSE:BP) has appointed Lan Tyler as permanent chairman, who was appointed interim chairman in May 2026 after his predecessor Albert Manifold was abruptly fired.
– Italian oil giant ENI (BIT:ENI) has signed a contract to develop the giant Junin 5 heavy oil field in Venezuela, taking over operatorship for the next 25 years.
Tuesday, September 8, 2026
Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia’s energy infrastructure (and their threats of a potential military invasion), as well as US strikes on Iranian oil tankers, have pushed oil prices above $99 a barrel, their highest level in three months. As Israeli-Lebanese tensions flare again, it only takes one belligerent message from Trump to bring oil back into triple-digit territory.
OPEC+ maintained October targets. OPEC+ left October 2026 production quotas unchanged after completing the reversal of a 1.65 million bpd voluntary cut in September, shifting focus to revising its 2027 production baseline as the Iran conflict limited the group’s ability to ramp up output.
Trump threatens trade embargo if Fed keeps rates. President Trump has warned he could impose a trade embargo on countries with surpluses to the US unless the Federal Reserve cuts its rate by 3.5% to 3.75%, potentially targeting major trading partners such as the EU, Canada and Mexico.
Iran threatens the Persian Gulf exclusion zone. Iran has said it plans to create a new maritime exclusion zone in the Persian Gulf, extending it to the US Navy blockade perimeter, potentially laying claim to the UAE port of Fujairah and Oman’s Sohar, as it warned the White House about its new ballistic missiles.
The Houthi strikes have disrupted Saudi Aramco. Houthi missile and drone attacks have shut down several Saudi energy facilities, including new strikes on the 400,000-barrel-per-day Jazan oil refinery that wounded 73 people in an unprecedented escalation of attacks on Saudi Arabia’s energy infrastructure.
Dangote is planning a $14 billion expansion. Ahead of its upcoming IPO, Nigerian refiner Dangote said it plans to invest $14.3 billion to double its refining capacity to 1.4 million bpd by 2029, viewing the $1.6 billion IPO as the next step toward self-financing after reporting $1.8 billion in profits in the first half of 2026.
China’s crude oil imports are rebounding as Beijing lifts its ban. China’s crude oil imports in August rose 6.2% month-on-month to 8.93 million barrels per day, level 2.nd a sequential monthly jump as Beijing eased a ban on fuel exports, with product exports jumping 29% from July despite continued weakness in domestic fuel demand.
Miley watches the Falkland Islands dispute escalate. The Argentine government said it will file criminal charges against Navitas Petroleum (TLV:NVPT) and its executives over their activities in the Falkland Islands, increasing pressure on the 50,000 b/d Sea Lion project ahead of its scheduled start-up in 2028.
Congo is tightening controls on data on critical minerals. The DRC plans to launch a state-controlled geological data bank by the end of 2026, giving Kinshasa greater control over exploration in a country that holds 6 million tonnes of cobalt reserves but is only 20% explored, giving it greater control over future cobalt supplies.
Qatar LNG leaves Hormuz after a two-month break. The first LNG cargo from Qatar has successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz since July, with the tanker Al Marrouna heading to Pakistan, signaling a tentative recovery in exports from a supplier that typically accounts for about 20% of global LNG trade.
Ukraine again attacked the Ryazan oil refinery. Ukraine reported a drone strike on Rosneft’s 342,000 bpd Ryazan oil refinery, causing a fire at the facility and its biggest strike to date in September, just as Russia’s oil refining rate began to recover after falling to 3.9 million bpd in July, a 21-year low.
Copper breaks records as global reserves dwindle. The benchmark three-month LME copper contract rose to a record $14,617 a tonne this week as inventories outside the US fell sharply, with 51% of LME shares scheduled to be recalled and SHFE inventories down 85% since March.
Aramco delays cargo deliveries to Europe. Saudi Aramco has reportedly delayed some September oil shipments to European buyers even as bids rose to 1.3 million bpd, suggesting Houthi missile strikes in the Red Sea are disrupting exports, with August deliveries totaling just 2.2 million bpd.
Sri Lanka expects to double its oil refining capacity. Sri Lanka’s Ceylon Petroleum Corp plans to double its refining capacity to 100,000 bpd within four years and will seek a joint venture partner through a tender process as it seeks to end its dependence on fuel imports following the US-Iran war.
Car sales in China fell amid rising exports. Passenger car sales in China fell 24% year-on-year in August to 1.54 million units.th That’s a direct drop from last year as automakers increasingly rely on demand overseas, with exports jumping 78% to 888,000 vehicles, accounting for 38% of all sales.
Brazil counts on pre-salt windfall. Brazil expects to raise 22.4 billion reais ($4.4 billion) from a special pre-salt oil auction in 2027, with revenues topping a projected primary surplus of $3.6 billion and a key part of the government’s plan to achieve its first budget surplus since 2022.
China has suspended purchases from Rio de Janeiro amid iron ore negotiations. The government-backed CMRG has reportedly instructed steel mills to delay purchases of Rio Tinto’s Pilbara iron ore during contract negotiations, which could impact supplies that make up nearly 20% of China’s annual iron ore imports.
Tom Cool for Oilprice.com
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