Millions of American retirees learned this week that their monthly Social Security checks could rise 3.5 percent in 2027, according to the latest forecast released by the advocacy group The Senior Citizens League. The projected figure is 0.1 percentage point lower than last month’s estimate, but would be higher than the 2.8 percent cost-of-living adjustment in 2026 and the 2.5 percent increase in 2025.
For context, the latest forecast comes after analysts updated their mathematical model to reflect new financial data. The Senior Citizens League uses a statistical model that includes the consumer price index, the Federal Reserve interest rate and the national unemployment rate in making its monthly forecasts.
If this latest forecast holds up when official data becomes available, the average benefit payment will increase by $67.90 per month. The current average beneficiary receives a monthly Social Security check of $1,940.08. With a projected 3.5 percent adjustment, that amount would rise to $2,007.98 per month.
What the 2027 COLA Forecast Means for Social Security and Retirees
Despite the projected increase over previous years, the Senior Citizens League warned that many older Americans remain concerned about the purchasing power of their Social Security benefits.
According to the organization’s 2026 Senior Survey, 89 percent of older Americans believed the 2026 COLA would be too low and that their monthly benefit payments would lag behind inflation. The survey also found that 44 percent of seniors receive all of their income from Social Security.
“Whether the COLA announcement is a little higher or a little lower than our forecast, seniors will likely end up disappointed,” said Shannon Benton, executive director of the Senior Citizens League.
Benton noted that older Americans allocate their household budgets differently than people who are still actively working. Because of differences in spending patterns, inflation could impact older consumers differently, she said.
She added that the main metric used by federal officials reflects the experience of city wage earners, which does not fully reflect the budget of the average senior.
The Senior Citizens League also argues that the annual nature of the COLA may make it difficult for beneficiaries to keep up with price changes throughout the year. Benton said the organization believes alternative adjustments should be considered, including more frequent increases.
How Inflation Data Affects Social Security’s COLA Calculations
The government’s official announcement on next year’s cost of living adjustments will be made on October 14. Federal officials determine the final percentage using the average annual change in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage and Employees (CPI-W) for July, August and September.
The August consumer price index (CPI-W) was 3.5 percent, following July’s 3.4 percent. However, September data is still needed before the official COLA for 2027 can be calculated and announced.
The Senior Citizens League said the 3.5 percent figure is its final COLA projection for 2027. The organization noted that short-term economic changes in the remaining period could still affect the government’s final calculations.
The 2027 adjustment is projected to be higher than the 2.8 percent COLA enacted in 2026. It would also be higher than the 2.5 percent increase implemented in 2025, although it would remain below some of the larger adjustments seen in recent years.
The Path Forward for Retirees Experiencing Social Security Changes
Social Security beneficiaries will see the new cost of living adjustment take effect on Jan. 1, 2027, according to the Senior Citizens League. The increase will be applied as a percentage of benefit payments.
For example, a beneficiary receiving $2,000 per month would receive an additional $70 if the final COLA was 3.5 percent, resulting in a monthly payment of $2,070.
For now, pensioners will have to wait for September inflation data and the official announcement on October 14. The final figure will determine how much Social Security benefits will increase in 2027.