Nearly one in two Canadians would vote for Mark Carney’s Liberals if elections were held today, according to a new Postmedia-Leger poll.
The Liberals continue to lead nationally, with 49 percent support among swing voters, up three points from August. Meanwhile, the Conservatives have 33 percent (down one point).
“These results further confirm that when Canada-U.S. relations deteriorate and/or President Trump begins to attack Canada, it is good news for the Liberal Party and appears to be bad news for the Conservatives,” says Andrew Enns, executive vice-president of Central Canada for Leger.
The poll results show the Conservatives followed by the Bloc Québécois at 7 percent (up one), the NDP at 6 percent (down two), the Greens at 3 percent (down one) and the other parties at 2 percent (unchanged).
Liberal support is particularly strong in British Columbia (59 percent), Ontario (53 percent) and among Canadians aged 55 and older (60 percent).
The Conservatives have their strongest support in Alberta (64 percent), Manitoba and Saskatchewan (47 percent), and rural Canada (43 percent).
Canadians continue to express positive support for the federal government, with 57 percent satisfied and 36 percent dissatisfied with its current performance. Satisfaction is highest in Quebec (65 percent) and among Canadians aged 55 and older (64 percent). It is lower in Alberta (37 per cent), Manitoba and Saskatchewan (46 per cent), and among people aged 35 to 54 (47 per cent).
Support for Prime Minister Carney’s performance is also positive, with an approval rating of 58 percent compared to 34 percent who disapprove. His approval is highest in Quebec (68 percent) and among Canadians aged 55 and older (67 percent). It is lower in Alberta (38 per cent) and among people aged 35 to 54 (51 per cent).
“Young people are most worried about their economic future, so noise about a trade war and warnings from the Prime Minister to ‘expect difficult times ahead’ are probably not particularly well suited to this generation,” says Enns. “They are already nervous about the breakneck pace of AI integration and the implications this has for future jobs and careers.”
The views of the federal government and Carney remain closely tied to federal voting intentions. Satisfaction with the government reaches 91 percent among Liberal voters, compared with just 21 percent among Conservative voters. Approval of Prime Minister Carney is 92 percent among Liberal voters and 23 percent among Conservative voters.
Given Liberal victories in three recent by-elections in Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia, as well as general pro-Canada sentiment, the poll results aren’t much of a surprise, Enns says.
“The Liberals have gained ground at the expense of the Conservatives, NDP and Greens. Liberal support is particularly high in Quebec, which is interesting given that the provincial Liberal Party is struggling to make a comeback in provincial elections in that province. It is also high in British Columbia and among voters aged 55 and over.”
This online survey was conducted among 1,538 respondents aged 18 years or older between September 5 and September 7, 2026. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size provides a margin of error of no more than ±2.5 percent (19 times out of 20) for the sample.
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