Houthi forces have seized the entire Red Sea coastline in Yemen, reaching the critical sea gate of Bab al-Mandeb, as the group continued its rapid advance on Friday.
The Houthis captured the port city of Mocha on Thursday, dealing a heavy blow to Yemen’s government backed by neighboring Saudi Arabia.
Recommended Stories
list of 4 itemsend of list
Analysts call the victories by the Iran-backed Houthi group the most significant regional development since the United States and Israel declared war on Iran in February.
The offensives could be particularly damaging to Saudi Arabia and its oil exports. The Houthis, who earlier this year declared a blockade of Saudi-flagged ships in the Red Sea, now have much tighter control over the Bab al-Mandeb waterway, which Riyadh increasingly relies on for oil exports after blockading the Strait of Hormuz at the entrance to the Persian Gulf, experts say.
But will the Houthis be able to control the Red Sea?
Here’s what we know:
What’s happening in Yemen?
Yemen has been at war since 2014, when Houthi rebels captured the capital Sanaa as well as the port city of Hodeidah, forcing the government to step aside.
Backed by Iran, the group has since fought a Saudi-backed Gulf military coalition fighting alongside Yemen’s internationally recognized government based in Aden.
Saudi Arabia entered the war in 2015, seeking to restore Yemen’s government and counter Iran’s expanding influence.
Although a UN truce in 2022 stopped the fighting, there have been periodic clashes since then. A new wave of fighting – some of the most intense in years – resumed last week as the Houthis attacked positions aimed at seizing the Red Sea coast. Yemeni government forces struck back.
In July, at the height of the US-Israeli war with Iran, the Houthis announced a complete naval blockade of Saudi Arabia and began attacking Saudi-linked ships passing through the crucial Bab al-Mandeb Strait.
The narrow strait is one of the world’s most important shipping lanes, connecting the Suez Canal and Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. Approximately 12 percent of global trade passes through it every day.
More ships have used it since Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 percent of the world’s energy supplies passed annually before the war began in February.
What do the Houthi successes mean for Saudi Arabia?
Full Houthi control of the Bab el-Mandeb corridor could worsen the ongoing global energy crisis as prices and supplies rise, experts warn.
For Saudi Arabia, this could further damage oil exports.
Since Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, Riyadh has sought to make greater use of its East-West oil pipeline, which runs from the Abqaiq oil field across the vast Arabian Peninsula to the western port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. Then oil can be transported along this sea route, rather than through the Persian Gulf.
The pipeline has been in operation since the 1980s and was specially built to avoid disruptions in Hormuz. It was temporarily closed during the 2019 Houthi drone attacks.
Since the February war, the kingdom has increased the pipeline’s capacity to full capacity, meaning it can now pump up to seven million barrels per day (bpd) across the country to the Red Sea coast, up from five million bpd before the war. As a result, 21 percent more Saudi oil is transported through Bab al-Mandeb than before the start of the US-Israeli war.
The Houthis responded by attacking Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea. But now that the group controls Yemen’s entire coastline and Bab al-Mandeb, Saudi exports could suffer even more.
The Houthis have already attacked Saudi energy facilities and southern cities. Images taken Friday showed smoke rising from the East-West pipeline. The Saudis have not confirmed whether it was shot down.
What does this mean for Iran?
Experts say the Houthis appear intent on opening a major new front in the US-Iran war and, importantly, giving Tehran a “bingo card” in its ongoing stalemate with Washington. Both Iran and the United States say they control the Strait of Hormuz, but a significant drop in shipping volumes suggests Iran has the upper hand, observers say.
Proxy control of Bab el-Mandeb only strengthens this hand.
“Essentially, this means Iran now controls the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Hormuz Plus,” said Alam Saleh, a professor of international relations at the Australian National University.
It also increases pressure on Washington as rising gas and food prices have already made the war deeply unpopular and voters are expected to show their anger toward Republicans in November’s midterm elections. President Donald Trump acknowledged this week that it is unlikely the war will end before then.
While Washington expects a strike strategy combined with economic pressure to bend Tehran to its will, it has less time to turn the tables in its favor, Saleh said.
A Houthi victory not only significantly shifts the balance of power in Iran’s favor, but also signals to other powers such as China and Russia that U.S. military power in the Middle East is waning, he added.
“Iran has now played the card of world oil prices and energy security. Thus, the Houthis controlling Bab al-Mandeb are a huge benefit for Iran.”
Will the Houthis be able to hold the Red Sea?
Analysts say the defeat of Yemeni government forces on Thursday was almost handed to the Houthis on a platter.
Yemeni government forces number about 300,000, while the Houthis number about 250,000.
But internal divisions within the Yemeni army, as well as external pressure from Saudi Arabia, have created a highly fragmented front that lacks the cohesion needed to fight a group as fast and adaptable as the Houthis, experts say.
“I would say this is a fighting force that is probably more advanced than the force the Saudis fought about a decade ago,” Mohamad Elmasri, a professor at the Doha Institute of Graduate Studies, said of the Houthis.
In addition, access to Iranian weapons over the past few years, from missiles to drones and air defense systems, has allowed the Houthis to amass an impressive stockpile, he added.
But Andreas Krieg, an associate professor at King’s College London, told Al Jazeera that despite their immediate victories, the Houthis are “terrible” at governing and are unlikely to withstand a blockade of Bab al-Mandeb. Their successful advance was not because they were underestimated, but because the Saudi-backed coalition was overestimated, he added.
However, as ANU’s Saleh points out, the Houthis do not actually need to control all of Bab al-Mandeb or the Red Sea to achieve their goals. He said the hint of danger was enough to put pressure on shipping and insurance companies to say it was too risky to enter the strait.
The question now is whether Riyadh can effectively stop the Houthis with its own air power. Saudi forces have fired dozens of rockets into Houthi-controlled areas including Mokka over the past 24 hours, but that does not appear to have stopped the group.
A recent defense pact between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey is unlikely to work, experts say, as the countries want to avoid escalating the US-Israeli conflict with Iran.
Washington also seems to be out of reach. US news site Axios reported that Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called US President Donald Trump twice on Thursday asking for US air strikes against the Houthis. Trump, however, refused.