In its latest update, BofA Securities highlighted that its previous cautious stance that markets could remain volatile was driven by eight risks, of which five had already been realized or priced in. The remaining three risks could pose a 7% downside risk to Nifty in a bearish scenario, but in the base case, he sees potential for Nifty at 26,200 by December 2026.
5 out of 8 risks for Nifty have been played out
The top five risks that BofA Securities believes have already materialized include rising oil prices, rupee depreciation, weak monsoons, commodities and RBI rate hike. Wall Street’s banking arm notes that oil prices have reversed away from $100 a barrel seven times in the past seven months, or since the start of the conflict in West Asia. Also, if he believes the recent $136 billion dollar influx should help the rupee, with an appreciation bias.
BofA does not expect further acceleration in aluminum and copper prices, and its economist expects the RBI to raise its repo rate by 25 bps. by December 2026, which is lower than the 45 bps hike already priced into swap markets. In terms of weak monsoon expectations, the current deficit of 13% is already close to the worst weather forecast of 15%.
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Nifty still faces three risks
While these five risks have already been priced in or realized, large initial offerings, expectations of Fed rate hikes and artificial intelligence glitches were listed as three other risks that could still spook investors. BofA Securities expects one-time issuances totaling $30 billion for the rest of the year, compared with $36 billion raised in 2026, to likely peak in October.
BofA expects the US Federal Reserve to announce a 75 bps rate hike. in September-December, which is higher than the market-predicted increase of 35 bps. Additionally, AI disruption and its impact on employment in India remains a structural risk, analysts say.
BofA is cautious on small- and mid-cap companies
With mid- and small-cap indices outperforming the Nifty by 13-20% this year, their valuation premium is now 43% versus 53% at its peak, according to BofA Securities. While the Wall Street giant still sees select opportunities in the broader markets, it is shifting its preference toward small- and mid-caps and suggesting a move toward large-caps, consistent with its view that investors will have to remain flexible to achieve outperformance.
“From a market capitalization perspective, we favor either stocks that offer value, strong earnings growth, or visibility,” the report concluded.
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