India’s monsoon will begin to retreat from September 19 due to 15% rainfall deficit: IMD

The southwest monsoon is likely to begin withdrawing from parts of Western Rajasthan around September 19, even as India nears the end of the monsoon season with a 15 per cent deficit in rainfall, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said conditions become favorable for the retreat of monsoon from parts of Western Rajasthan around September 19. The usual start date for leaving the region is September 17.

However, the withdrawal will not mean an immediate end to rainfall across the country. Parts of India are expected to receive rain in the coming days, with some areas likely to experience heavy rainfall.

According to the IMD, the overall deficit in monsoon rainfall as of September 13 was 15 percent.

The shortage fluctuated significantly throughout the season. The rate stood at 40 percent in June before heavy rainfall in July brought it down to 13 percent by the end of that month. The deficit widened to 14 percent at the end of August and has now widened further.

The impact was not uniform across the country.

The south of the peninsula recorded the largest regional deficit at 28 percent, followed by east and northeast India at 25 percent. In central India, the deficit is 6 percent, and in northwestern India it is 10 percent below normal.

Some states face significantly larger deficits. Punjab recorded a deficit of 40 percent, followed by Bihar with 35 percent, Rajasthan with 25 percent and Haryana with 23 percent.

The situation is also difficult in parts of southern and northeastern India, with Andhra Pradesh recording a deficit of 43 percent, Karnataka 29 percent, Kerala 27 percent and Tamil Nadu 26 percent. Arunachal Pradesh recorded a deficit of 42 percent, while Meghalaya recorded a deficit of 59 percent.

Despite the looming troop withdrawal, weather conditions remain active in several parts of the country.

The IMD said the low pressure area is located in southwest Madhya Pradesh, southeast Rajasthan and north Gujarat. The trough extends from Jharkhand through Gujarat, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh and there is a cyclonic upper air circulation over the Bay of Bengal near Odisha and West Bengal.

These systems are expected to support rainfall across regions this week.

Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan and Muzaffarabad are likely to receive fairly heavy rainfall from September 15 to 17. Punjab, Haryana and Delhi may also experience rain on September 16 and 17.

Uttar Pradesh is expected to experience isolated and scattered rainfall till September 18 and parts of Rajasthan from September 15 to 17.

The rain is expected to continue in parts of the south.

The IMD has forecast isolated heavy rainfall over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, while Kerala and Mahe may experience heavy spells till September 16. South Karnataka is also likely to receive isolated heavy rainfall on September 15.

Further rainfall is expected in coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana between September 18 and 20. Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha may also experience isolated showers during this period.

In eastern India, fairly widespread rainfall is likely to occur in West Bengal and Sikkim until September 20th. Bihar may experience similar activity on September 16 and 17, while Odisha is expected to experience rain from September 19 to 20.

The expected departure from Western Rajasthan is the first official sign that the southwest monsoon is beginning its seasonal retreat. But this process is gradual and does not mean an immediate end to the monsoon across India.

Therefore, the next few days remain important for many regions. Precipitation from active weather systems could provide some relief to areas still facing significant shortfalls, although the size of existing shortfalls means some states are unlikely to fully recover.

The latest IMD assessment suggests that while the monsoon is starting to approach the winding down phase, rainfall activity will continue over most parts of the country before the season eventually comes to an end.