WASHINGTON (AP) — An unprecedented wave of mid-decade redistricting in the U.S. House of Representatives redrawn the congressional districts of one-tenth of Americans and significantly altered the composition of at least one-fifth of districts, according to a new study.
The Protect Democracy report found that 34.8 million people—about one in 10 Americans—now live in a different district than they did during the 2024 election cycle. And about one-fifth of all Americans now live in a district where more than a quarter of voters are new to the district compared to the last election cycle.
The results show the sweeping changes that have taken place in the lives of Americans across the country due to the partisan redistricting fight launched by President Donald Trump last year. New congressional maps are increasingly drawn in ways that prioritize party politics over factors like geography and overall communities. This has raised concerns among scholars about how the country’s hyperpolarized politics are affecting American democracy.
“If this trend continues, it will really call into question whether elected officials truly represent their constituents, or whether mapmakers are randomly selecting voters to squeeze out partisan advantage,” said Ben Raderstorff, a political advocate at Protect Democracy and one of the paper’s co-authors.
The cutthroat partisan battle over House redistricting began as Trump called on the Republican-controlled legislature in Texas, the second-most populous state, to redraw its congressional map to help the party. The highly unusual plan drew an immediate response from California, the most populous state, which held a successful referendum to tilt its map toward the Democrats.
Other states followed, with Republicans potentially gaining nine seats due to redistricting.
The Defending Democracy report warns that such partisan tactics reduce confidence in American elections overall and isolate sitting lawmakers from public opinion. The report warns that this could make political organizing more difficult and potentially worsen the country’s already highly polarized politics. Both parties could also enter a “doom loop” where they make more aggressive and frequent redistricting attempts to avoid losing any ground to their rivals.
In some states, such as Missouri, mid-decade redistricting has left voters confused about which district they live in and which candidates will appear on their November ballot. After controversial lower court rulings, the U.S. Supreme Court last week blocked Missouri’s new Trump-backed districts used in the primary, leaving the state to revert to its previous districts for the general election.
The report concludes with a call for new electoral structures that the authors believe would address the potential disadvantages of partisan redistricting, such as proportional representation or formal party truces to implement nonpartisan redistricting plans.
Nine states already use nonpartisan commissions to draw congressional district boundaries, but these provisions have limitations. California, for example, suspended its nonpartisan referendum maps last year in response to Texas’ redistricting measures.
Such measures could face significant hurdles in Congress and state chambers, but scholars believe there are few other ways to lower the temperature in the partisan redistricting fight.
“It’s only going to get worse until somebody stops it,” Raderstorff said. “The logic of gerrymandering inevitably points to maximalist party advantage on both sides. There is no other way but reform. This is the only way to break the vicious circle.”
